Aaron T. Wolf is a professor of geography in the College of Earth, Ocean, and Atmospheric Sciences at Oregon State University, USA, whose research and teaching focus is on the interaction between water science and water policy, particularly as related to conflict prevention and transformation. A trained mediator / facilitator, he directs the Program in Water Conflict Management and Transformation, through which he has offered workshops, facilitations, and mediation in basins throughout the world. He is the author, most recently, of The Spirit of Dialogue: Lessons from Faith Traditions in Transforming Conflict.

In general, most parameters commonly identified as indicators of water conflict are only weakly linked to dispute in reality. The world is rife with settings where water quantity and quality are being degraded to where shortages of clean freshwater threaten lives and human and ecosystem health. Yet these are not necessarily where geopolitical tensions and violence will result. Rather, there is a key relationship, derived empirically, underlying the hotspots we identify for early-warning mapping: "The likelihood and intensity of tensions related to water resources rises as the rate of change within a basin exceeds the institutional capacity to absorb that change".